Garten.

Every summer Sunday since 2010 is labelled open or closed from the published lineups — 15 seasons, minus 2020. A logistic regression learns from the day's weather (temperature, rain, wind, sunshine), the Saturday before, and how often the Garten opened that same week of summer, with recent years weighted heaviest. Within two weeks of an event it uses the real forecast; further out it falls back to that seasonal base rate alone. Held back the 2023–2025 seasons to test it: 83% of those 65 Sundays called correctly, against 68% for the seasonal average on its own. We have no inside information — we guess from the outside, like you.